Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 5.465145 6.506718 7.658947 9.023390 10.590024 12.327407 14.394631
2025-03-02 3.597949 4.903568 6.513879 8.624002 11.291602 14.525426 18.712629
2025-03-09 2.605864 4.000284 5.889354 8.583289 12.264955 17.051883 23.665109
2025-03-16 1.925418 3.296094 5.316470 8.418824 12.949584 19.193893 28.288448
2025-03-23 1.605465 3.016468 5.248978 8.891373 14.501647 22.596395 34.878017
2025-03-30 1.298041 2.670031 4.993238 9.005432 15.495599 25.256742 40.617534
2025-04-06 1.050216 2.358144 4.720838 9.023930 16.304912 27.674418 46.159799
2025-04-13 0.852826 2.086000 4.456600 8.996166 17.004913 29.948531 51.624832
2025-04-20 0.779737 2.043368 4.595612 9.678532 18.939452 34.304562 60.617342
2025-04-27 0.675622 1.906503 4.526272 9.961790 20.199672 37.646682 68.208413
2025-05-04 0.596516 1.805506 4.507843 10.330382 21.634110 41.368409 76.643914
2025-05-11 0.500273 1.635793 4.312707 10.318595 22.357922 43.915808 83.272246
2025-05-18 0.397154 1.420557 3.984720 10.005853 22.513500 45.543324 88.566260
2025-05-25 0.306778 1.209268 3.621913 9.563785 22.368788 46.626646 93.011956
2025-06-01 0.253052 1.088124 3.451552 9.517297 23.006053 49.181511 100.221716
2025-06-08 0.203835 0.961681 3.238715 9.336956 23.339110 51.179533 106.541568
2025-06-15 0.187130 0.943464 3.313787 9.852694 25.201138 56.229264 118.757181
2025-06-22 0.160344 0.876227 3.235825 9.977091 26.214196 59.678874 128.163929
2025-06-29 0.134975 0.803132 3.124003 9.997247 26.992081 62.707261 136.935931
2025-07-06 0.112607 0.731804 3.000642 9.966935 27.647149 65.524169 145.449367
2025-07-13 0.108935 0.746180 3.155725 10.711292 30.178225 72.346113 162.100761
2025-07-20 0.097164 0.715281 3.154072 11.020087 31.697718 77.148405 175.004787
2025-07-27 0.088210 0.694732 3.183766 11.421744 33.475575 82.596408 189.450280